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How do insurance companies calculate the premium for an event that has a fixed chance of occurring i.e. how do they turn the knowledge of a chance of an incident into premium?

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First of all there is no insurance available against any event/risk which has fixed chance of occurence. However, the premium charged by an insurer is calculated as follows, of course as per acturial studies based on law of large numbers:-

Premium = (Probable loss x probability of loss)+G&A Expenses + Normal profit

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