How many people have died from the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic?

Answer 1

The daily and weekly counts of cases and deaths from the 2009 Swine Flu (which were initially required by the CDC, WHO, and national health departments of most nations during the pandemic) have stopped now that the pandemic has been declared over. Therefore, there is no way to know the numbers for this type of flu any longer. There is still required reporting of ILI (Influenza-Like Illnesses) and deaths due to an ILI by health care providers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US. However, reporting of the specific type of flu virus involved is no longer required. The treatment is the same regardless of the subtype or strain of influenza, so no testing is usually done anymore to determine that specific virus in each case.

There are still ongoing cases scattered around the world even as of the 2012-2013 flu season, so the numbers continue to change, as well. The reporting process became a burden for the reporting providers and other entities to try to track and report the numbers. The numbers were also not entirely accurate since a large portion of people who had swine flu had mild forms and did not go to the doctor. Their cases could not be counted. And, if no lab test were done to confirm the specific type of flu, there is no way to know for sure if each case should be included in the count or if it is another type of flu.

As mentioned, the treatment is the same as for other types of flu, so there is no real medical need for testing to determine what form of flu someone has in most cases. For this reason, there is no definite count possible on cases or deaths from of this type of flu any more.

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Worldwide:

5 March 2010 -- As of 28 February 2010, According to the World Health Organization (WHO), worldwide more than 213 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 16455 deaths.

US:

3 March 2010 -- As of 12 February 2010, According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it is estimated* that since the beginning of the pandemic, the US has had approximately 57 million cases of A-H1N1/09 Pandemic Swine Flu and approximately 11,690 resulting deaths. Based upon this, an estimate of the mortality rate in the US from the pandemic is 0.02%.

In comparison, the CDC and World Health Organization (WHO) have estimated that with seasonal flu, "we see over 30 million cases in the United States. We see 200,000 hospitalizations and, on average, 36,000 deaths." (During the entire fall and winter flu season.) Based upon this, the average mortality rate of seasonal flu in the US would be 0.12 %.

*The CDC stopped keeping track a long time ago of how many cases of H1N1 there were on an ongoing basis, due to incomplete counts in the reports. Most cases that are not complicated or requiring medical care aren't reported to the health departments and, of those, only a small number have had confirmation by laboratory testing. However, deaths from this infection have been being reported better and more have been confirmed, those numbers are more accurate. The CDC has developed a method of estimation of total counts based on the numbers of reported cases and deaths.

The statistics of this mortality rate variation between the seasonal flu and H1N1/09 swine flu, and other data gathered to date during the pandemic, are under study by epidemiologists. The Death Rate difference may be attributable to the fact that the especially vulnerable demographic group of the elderly (age 65 and older) suffers the majority of the cases and deaths from seasonal flu (because their weakened immune systems are unable to fight it off before their frail bodies must attempt to deal with the symptoms caused by another new strain of virus). In contrast, the majority of cases of the pandemic swine flu are among the younger and healthier demographic groups, so that, except for the very young and those with underlying medical conditions, most are able to survive the disease. It is not fully understood yet why the elderly do not contract this virus subtype as easily as the typical seasonal virus subtypes, but speculation is that they may have acquired immunity through prior exposure to a similar virus strain sometime in their lives.

PREVIOUSLY:

The mortality rate for the A-H1N1/09 Pandemic Flu was roughly calculated as 0.01%.

It had been difficult to come up with an estimate of the mortality rates of Swine Flu (novel H1N1/09), since the case numbers were being drawn from known cases from hospitalized patients or other laboratory confirmed cases. These were known to be just a fraction of the total number of infections (because those figures excluded the unknown number of mild cases treated at home, untested, and unreported.)

Very rough estimates of the mortality rate of the pandemic A-H1N1/09 influenza have now been calculated from statistics gathered by a French study in late August 2009 and reported in the Public Library of Science (PLOS). Based on their findings, it is estimated that Novel Swine Flu is 100 times more virulent than seasonal flu.

The main cause of death with A-H1N1/09 is viral pneumonia with resulting ARDS (Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome). Even though treated in a hospital ICU, approximately 50% of ARDS cases result in death. In the French study, the number of ARDS cases was found to be one in every 5000 cases, giving the estimate of ARDS deaths as 1 in 10,000 cases of infection.

The number of deaths from ARDS in seasonal flu cases, based on empirical evidence in France, is calculated to be between 5 and 10 each year out of an average annual number of seasonal flu cases of 6 million infections. Until better counts of cases are available, that gives a rough estimate of the deaths due to ARDS resulting from seasonal influenza of one out of a million infected patients.

The 1 death in 10,000 cases from A-H1N1/09 compared to 1 in 1,000,000 from seasonal flu strains gives the prior mentioned indications of A-H1N1/09 being 100 times more virulent than seasonal flu. (For the full article about the study, see the related links section below.)

Average mortality rate of seasonal flu = 0.12 % (based on WHO statistics below)

From WHO: "With seasonal flu, we see in the United States over 30 million cases. We see 200,000 hospitalizations and, on average, 36,000 deaths." (During the entire fall and winter flu season.)

It is believed that so far it may be a much lower mortality rate than feared for this first wave of the 2009 Swine Flu (Novel H1N1). Future waves of the outbreaks can become more serious if it follows patterns of other epidemics and pandemics in the past, however.

The total number of people originally infected in Mexico was initially underestimated because the diagnosis of it in many who were hospitalized was delayed at the beginning of the outbreak. Without that data to compare to the known deaths attributed to the virus, the death rate could only be assumed from the low numbers of confirmed cases at first.

The statistics and conclusions are still being monitored, and there may be future waves of the strain that are more deadly than the first, as occurs in many flu outbreaks. Because this new mutation of the swine flu virus has not infected humans before, there is no historical information to know what the death rate may be. Viruses can vary greatly in their effects on those infected. Some viruses do not affect many people, but the majority of the ones that are infected may die. Other viruses may affect a widespread significant number of people, but have a very low death rate. Some viruses affect only the infirm, very young, very old, or others with compromised immune systems; while other strains of viruses, like this strain of swine flu seems to be doing, are more often caught by people who have been healthy up until the contact with the virus.

See the Related Links for updated data from the CDC (the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) about the swine flu in the US; and data from the World Health Organization (WHO) about international cases.

There is also a web page for One Stop Information About the Swine Flu from the US Government; link is below.

Answer 2

Since the daily and weekly counts of cases and deaths from the swine flu, which were initially required by the CDC, WHO, and national health departments of most nations have stopped since the pandemic was declared over, there is no way to know how many now. One reason is there are still ongoing cases scattered around the world even as of fall 2012. Another reason is that it was a burden on the reporting entities to try to track and report the numbers. And a large portion of people who had swine flu had mild forms and did not go to the doctor. Their cases could not be counted. And, if no lab test were done to confirm the specific type of flu, there is no way to know for sure if each case should be included in the count or if it is another type of flu.

The treatment is the same as for other types of flu, so there is no real medical need for testing to determine what form of flu someone has in most cases. For this reason, there is no definite count possible on cases of this type of flu any more.

Answer 3

people say over two hundred but deaths have only occured in Mexico

Answer 4

12389

Answer 5

How many