Is the meaning of backwardation and contango used in finance textbooks the same as the colloquial meaning used by Wall Street?

Answer:
In short, whether we have Backwardation or Contango depends on how the expected forward spot prices are quantified and how the related commodity strips behave.

Contango and Backwardation in Common Usage

Investment professionals on financial TV channels and in newspapers colloquially refer to upward trends in futures prices as contango and downwards trends in futures prices as backwardation.

Contango and Backwardation in Economic Theory

In economic theory regarding Backwardation and Contango, associated with John Maynard Keyns and John Hicks, for Contango to exist, expected spot prices (someday in the future) have to be lower than current futures prices for the same future moments, and reverse has to apply for Backwardation. Thus whether we have a contango or bacwardation depends on an arbitrary forward estimate of spot prices.

For example, if we estimate that today's spot price, price at which a physical commodity is trading today, is an expected spot price someday in the future, and we see an upward trend in a commodity strip (series of future contracts prices), we see a contango. On the other hand, if the futures prices in a commodity strip trending upwards are considered unbiased estimates of the expected future spot prices, meaning they are equal, there is no Contango or Backwardation to speak of. By the way, upward trend of estimates may be a result of storage expenses.

First answer by ID1531686673. Last edit by Mabrozek. Contributor trust: 231 [recommend contributor recommended]. Question popularity: 5 [recommend question].