What extent is it possible to manage population change?

Answer 1

LEDCs and MEDCs face different problems when attempting to manage population change. LEDC: A Less Economically Developed Country [LEDC] has low levels of development, based on economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (the country's income). More of the countries in the southern hemisphere (eg countries in southern Africa, southern Asia and South America) are LEDCs, while more of the countries in the northern hemisphere are More Economically Developed Countries [MEDCs]. have to manage rapid population growth. MEDC: A More Economically Developed Country [MEDC] has high levels of development, based on economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (the country's income). More of the countries in the northern hemisphere are MEDCs, eg UK, USA, Canada, Europe. More of the countries in the southern hemisphere are Less Economically Developed Countries [LEDCs]. have to manage slow or negative growth and an ageing population.

The recent history of population management policies in China illustrates the population change management problems of both LEDCs and MEDCs.

Population growth in LEDCs

Most LEDCs are experiencing rapid population growth. Most LEDCs are in stage two or three of the demographic transition model: The demographic transition measures population change over time, by studying birth rate and death rate. In stage one the high birth rate balances (matches) the high death rate. In stage two, the total population starts to rise as death rates start to fall, but birth rates remain quite high. In stage three, the population is still growing, but the gap between the birth rate and death rate narrows. In stage four, the total population is high, but it is balanced due to a low birth rate and a low death rate.. This means that they have falling death rates, due to improving health care and greater access to modern medicine, while birth rates remain high.

Causes of population growth in LEDCs

• Limited access to family planning services or contraception.
• Limited education about family planning.
• Children are a valuable source of income for a family as they can work on the land from quite a young age. As children get older they may be able to earn money in other ways, eg selling snacks to tourists on the beach in a holiday resort.
• As children get older they can help to care for younger children in the family.
• High rates of infant mortality (infant deaths) means that women need to have many children in order to ensure that some survive through to adulthood.
• It may not be culturally or religiously acceptable to use contraception or other methods of family planning.
• In some places it may be traditional or culturally important to have a large family.

The fact that LEDCs have a high population-growth rate means that they tend to have a very young population with many young dependants. Governments in LEDCs and international organisations such as charities are working together to reduce birth rates and slow down rates of population growth.

Case study: China

In the late 1970s, in an attempt to slow down the rate of population growth, the Chinese government introduced a number of measures to try to reduce the country's Birth Rate. The most important of the new measures was a one-child policy, which decreed that a couple in China could only have one child.

The thinking behind the new policy was that China's population growth-rate was unsustainable: Unsustainable resources are those which cannot be used forever and cannot be replaced or recycled after they are used. The use of fossil fuels is unsustainable for example..

• In 1950 the rate of population change in China was 1.9% each year. If this doesn't sound high, consider that a growth rate of only 3% will cause the population of a country to double in less than 24 years!
• Previous Chinese governments had actually encouraged people to have a lot of children, in order to increase the country's workforce. But by the 1970s the government came to realise that current rates of population growth would soon become unsustainable.

The one-child policy

• The one-child policy, established in 1979, meant that each couple was allowed just one child.
• Benefits, including access to education, childcare and health care, were offered to families that followed this rule, and withdrawn from those that had further children.
• Fines were placed on families that had more than one child.
• The one-child policy was keenly resisted in rural areas, where it was traditional to have large families The one-child policy has been enforced strictly in urban areas, but remote rural areas have been harder to control.
• Many people claim that some women, who became pregnant after they had already had a child, were forced to have an abortion and many women were forcibly sterilised. There appears to be a lot of evidence to back up these claims.

Impact of the policy

• The birth rate in China has fallen considerably in the last 25 years, and the rate of population growth is now just 0.7%. However there have been negative impacts too...
• Due to a traditional preference for boys, large numbers of female babies have ended up homeless or in orphanages, and in some cases killed. In 2000, it was reported that 90% of foetuses aborted in China were female.
• As a result, the gender balance of the Chinese population has become distorted. Today it is thought that men outnumber women by more than 60 million.

Long-term implications

China's One-Child Policy has been somewhat relaxed in recent years. Couples can now apply to have a second child if their first child is a girl, or if both parents are themselves only-children.

While China's population is now rising more slowly, it still has a very large total population (1.2 billion in 2002) and China now faces new problems:

• The falling birth rate is leading to the population structure becoming unbalanced between young and old, as the relative number of elderly people rises.
• At the same time there are fewer people of working age to support the growing number of elderly dependents. In the future China could have an ageing population.

Population change in MEDCs

Most MEDC: A More Economically Developed Country [MEDC] has high levels of development, based on economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (the country's income). More of the countries in the northern hemisphere are MEDCs, eg UK, USA, Canada, Europe. More of the countries in the southern hemisphere are Less Economically Developed Countries [LEDCs].are experiencing slow rates of population growth. Some are actually experiencing population decline.

Most MEDCs are in stage four of the demographic transition model: The demographic transition measures population change over time, by studying birth rate and death rate. In stage one the high birth rate balances (matches) the high death rate. In stage two, the total population starts to rise as death rates start to fall, but birth rates remain quite high. In stage three, the population is still growing, but the gap between the birth rate and death rate narrows. In stage four, the total population is high, but it is balanced due to a low birth rate and a low death rate.. Those countries with a declining population could be said to be entering stage five. This means that the birth rate in their country has fallen below the death rate. Most MEDCs have a very low rate of natural increase: Natural increase is the natural growth of a population due to the number of births exceeding deaths. The rate of this increase can be calculated by subtracting the birth rate from the death rate..

The average life expectancy in MEDCs is rising. This is due to:

• Improvements in health care and medicine.
• Increased leisure and recreation time.
• Improved knowledge about the importance of a balanced diet and regular exercise.
• Improved living standards and quality of life.

Birth rates in MEDCs are falling as women choose to have smaller families later in life. Contraception is easily available and well understood. This helps women to plan their families and to have a career too.

An ageing population

• As people live longer the structure of a population changes.
• Many MEDCs are now experiencing a significant increase in the numbers of elderly people as a proportion of the population as whole.
• As birth rates fall and people have smaller families, the number of young dependants is falling and the number of elderly dependants is rising.
• In the near future this will mean that there are fewer people of working age to support the elderly population.
• To try to balance out an ageing population: A country has an ageing population when the average age of its population is rising., some countries adopt a pro-natalist: Countries are described as pro-natalist if they adopt policies which encourage people to have children. policy - that is, they encourage people to have more children by offering them benefits, such as better access to childcare and better conditions for maternity leave

Coping with an ageing population in the UK What are the issues?

• There are decreasing numbers of economically active people in the population.
• There are more elderly dependents.

What can be done about it?

• People are being encouraged to save for their retirement in pensions and investments.
• The age at which people are retiring is increasing.
• Facilities such as nursing homes and care workers will be needed, perhaps in preference to schools and nurseries as the population gets older.
• Educated and skilled migrants could be encouraged as they contribute to the economy.
• Even unskilled migrants have a vital part to play in the economy as they are willing to take lower paid, lower skilled jobs such as cleaning, which may have anti social hours.